[web] new innovation models

Behind Google’s success are a new way of monetizing content, and a new way of developing web-based software.

‘Web 2.0’ may be a short-lived buzzword, but the technologies and development processes that accompany it are not.

[broadband] war of the worlds

Cable telephony… wireless video … iTunes® phones… broadband movies …Telco TV…Google’s ‘OpenOffice’... Broadband is about a lot more than connectivity.

War of the Worlds is a multi-industry contest in which telecom, media, consumer devices, and retailing will fight over broadband profits.

[media] digital economics are here

Media is experimenting with a long-awaited transformation of distribution and delivery economics:

• breaking release windows: compressing, or disappearing altogether
• cross-over: theatrical, game, internet categories are blurring
• bypass: new or à la carte offers bypassing tiered cable/DBS delivery model

In January 2006, HDNet Films and 2929 Entertainment, both Mark Cuban enterprises, will begin simultaneous first-run (digitally-projected) theatrical, DVD, and cable distribution of Steven Soderbergh-directed features.

[strategy] uncharted waters

The “value network” in media, internet infrastructure, and telecom services is undergoing major strategic change.

• industry boundaries: how will these industries collide or cooperate?
• potential outcomes: how broad is the range of possible endgames?
• business development: how do we implement partnerships in unfamiliar territories?
• economic assumptions: how do we challenge competitors with very different business models?

[scenario] broadband's possible futures

Scenarios set in year 2010 illustrate a wide range of ways in which a multi-industry collision over broadband’s spoils might play out.

Some scenarios exact a heavy price on telecom as it is outflanked by new, unfamiliar competitors. Others illustrate new opportunities, not just for telecom, but for adjacent industries as well.

[mobile] quality of growth

Mobile communications is often viewed as one of telecom’s few bright spots – providing the prospect of significant growth, even when near-term profitability is elusive.

Yet mobile’s increasing shift towards broadband brings with it new strategic issues which challenge both the level and quality of revenue growth.

[investor] eye on fundamentals

Our points of view frequently address business and industry fundamentals of concern to private and public investors:

• innovations: an incremental feature, or a sustainable business?
• legacy businesses: source of long-term cash flow or a “pre-distressed” asset?
• competitive strategies: which is a likely winner or loser, and why?
• industry economics: what are the actual drivers of performance?

[service_innovation] changing course

The “usual suspects” in the telecom bubble are regulation and excess capital, but we focus on a third, more important cause – flawed business models and strategies.

Telecom-based case studies help define a new model for potential services growth. This service marketpace model aims for not one or two “killer apps”, but hundreds of modest growth, revenue-generating services, both voice, internet, and hybrid combinations.

In this approach transport and services business models are separated and complementary, and capital efficiency is at a premium.